So here is the article i'm submitting for the draft I took place in last weekend. The article itself is kinda safe for work, but I wouldn't recommend clicking on the links there. Hell, I wouldn't recommend clicking on the links anywhere... I'll update as the season progresses, and I promise I will start every update with a picture of Gisele. At least i'll provide something of value...
Draft strategy
Slow and steady wins the race. At least that’s what they say. So this season I decided to try that philosophy. Who needs big play potential? I mean really now, 80 yard TD runs are overrated. Besides that, they’re fascist. This is a team sport. So I drafted team players who march down the field 10 yards at a time.
Okay, that’s not the plan, but it might as well have been. The plan is to grab as many reliable performers as I can fit on my roster. The more guaranteed points I have, the less I will fall victim to bad weeks. And at the end of the day, putting 95 points a week will win more games then it loses.
With every pick, I’ll describe the good (expectations and upside), the bad (downsides), and the ugly (the random factors that could make things good or bad). Remember, ugly can be a good thing. For example, “ugly”people typically have great personalities, have hot friends, and give great head *cough* massages.
So with that, here they are!
The picks of destiny…( see, ugly can be funny too!)
Round 1 – Pick# 7
Rashard Mendenhall – RB – Pittsburgh Steelers
The good: Took the starting job over in Week 4 and proceeded to average over 15 pts/game. In that stretch, he had under 7 pts just one time.
The bad: Big Ben will be out at least 4 weeks. And Pittsburgh has Colon problems, which should hurt them a little. That said, Flozell Adams is still available, and the Steelers did draft two linemen (one at #18), so the line should be ready to go by Week 1. The only concern is if Ray Lewis
does this again.
The ugly: Dwyer may snipe some goal line carries, and Moore may take the 3rd down snaps. But his size and speed should allow him to get 20 touches a game, and at least some of the short yardage carries.
My prediction: 1500 combined yards, 9 touchdowns … 13 pts/week
Round 2 – Pick # 14
Ryan Grant – RB – Green Bay Packers
The good: Has started 44 straight games, and is the feature back in one of the premiere offenses in football. He scored under 10 points in only 2 out of 16 games last year (averaging over 14pts/game).
The bad: Rodgers has lots of passing weapons, so he’ll lose touches. Also, Rodgers scored 5 rushing TD’s last year. But even with all that, Grant was able to cross the stripe 11 times.
The ugly: He’s put up three consecutive years over 1,100 yards. Has no backup to speak of, and with Rodgers flinging the ball around, he should see a lot of 6-7 man fronts. Now if he can only avoid
out this, he’ll be a star.
My prediction: 1500 combined yards, 9 touchdowns … 13 pts/week
The Draft so far…
I’ve got two backs that should average a combined 26 points per game. Both have a vice grip on the starting job, both play in bad weather areas which encourages running games, and both are on strong enough teams that will run the ball to kill the clock. Plus, with their size and speed, they have big play potential. And if they can break a long run or two, they go from
solid to sexy.
Round 3 – Pick # 27
Brandon Marshall – WR – Miami Dolphins
The good: Henne is miles ahead of Orton. Marshall had over 100 catches/year for the last 3 seasons despite missing time for suspensions/mysterious injuries. Plus, he’s got something to prove.
The bad: New team, new QB, and they are a run first offense. Oh yeah, and he has to visit Revis Island twice.
The ugly: He’ll have to learn the new system, but once he does, he’ll thrive. He should catch another 100 balls, and you know he’ll have another game like this one or this one. Plus, Henne has been throwing to guys like Ted Ginn his whole career. This is like owning a Camry and then getting the keys to a Porsche. Once you see how great it is, you never look back.
My prediction: 100 catches, 1100 yards, 9 touchdowns … 10 pts/week
12/13/19 game
Early 08 game, 18 catches
MCDONALDS BAG INJURY
TED GINN DROPPING TD PASS
Round 4 – Pick # 34
Tom Brady – QB – New England Patriots
The good: He’s Tom Brady. He’s in a contract year. And his best WR (Moss) is also in a contract year.
Gisele Bundschen.
The bad: Umm… he had a finger problem last year?
The ugly: As long as he doesn’t lose a foot in training camp, I’ll ride him all season long. And every time I pull up a Brady status update, I’ll have to suffer through
this. But seriously, I am concerned that
this will make his statline suffer. Also of note, if Welker comes back for Week 1, expect Brady to put up bigger numbers then usual, as he “gets back into game shape”, which is nothing more then an excuse to run up the score.
My prediction: 4400 yards, 30 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, a Fox cartoon, me getting hairy palms…17.5 pts/week
Round 5 – Pick # 47
Vernon Davis – TE – San Francisco 49ers
The good: The crying man should have a good year, with Smith maturing, and with the offensive line being bolstered enough that the QB will have time to throw. Gore will keep defenses honest, opening up the field for Davis to do big things.
The bad:
He’s not one Singletary’s favorite players. Oh, and the ankle issues a few years ago. But judging from the video below, he looks ok. In fact, he’s well enough to start cross-training!
The ugly: Crabtree and Gore look primed to have a big year, and that means less touches for Davis. But with his measurables, he’ll be a red zone nightmare for defenses. The 49er offense should have plenty of chances, especially in the anemic NFC West. Another thing of note, Davis is a multi-sport athlete. He benched 465 in college, ran a 4.38 40yd dash, and was the honorary captain of the US Mens Curling Team at the 2010 Olympics.
Seriously.
My prediction: 79 catches, 960 yards, 7 touchdowns
The draft so far…
So far, so good! Was able to add a QB, WR, and TE, which are about as reliable as they come. These five guys should average 62.5 points per game. Also with that last pick I was able to secure the Northwest Territory fanbase and a sponsorship from
Molsen! Big shout out to Olaf and Jurgen!
This core should carry my team every week. The other players are where I can afford to take chances and build a potential champion. The first step is to try and get some WR’s who will help the team. Or, failing that, get a few WR’s who won’t make me want to kick puppies.
You know who
you are…
Round 6 – Pick # 54
Mike Sims-Walker – WR – Jacksonville Jaguars
The good: Had a terrific first half of 2009, until calf and knee problems slowed him down. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be a stud.
The bad: Injury prone. He’s had the first three seasons of his career cut short due to injury. If he can prevent that from happening, he’ll be great. If he can’t, he’ll be another
Fred Taylor.
The ugly: I’m taking a gamble here. I figure that he has plenty of upside, and he could be a strong WR2. I will have to draft accordingly later to grab a backup in case he fails. I think his potential worth outweighs his potential risk.
My prediction: 72 catches, 1050 yards, 5 touchdowns … 8 pts/week
Round 7 – Pick# 67
Pierre Garcon – WR – Indianapolis Colts
The good: Became the WR2 in Indy. Having Peyton Manning pick you as the go-to guy in the AFC championship definitely improves your value. He’s the biggest and fastest receiver on the Colts, which should make him a big target.
The bad: Hasn’t proven he can be a consistent threat. You never know who the guy is in Indy, and he’s gotta complete with Clark, Wayne, Collie, etc for catches and scores.
The ugly: Its tough not to like a guy who caught TD passes in both the Super Bowl and the AFC Championship game. If he establishes himself early as the next Marvin Harrison, his value will rise immensely. This is a risky pick, but in the 7th round, it’s worth a shot. So I got that going for me.
My prediction: 52 catches, 800 yards, 8 touchdowns … 8 pts/week
The draft so far…
Well, so far my WR2 & WR3 are very risky. I love them both as high-end WR4’s, or at best low-end WR3’s. But looking at the crop of WR’s available, I’ve got a plan. And not a “lets build a bigger and more powerful
Death Star” plan. More like a “lets make a smaller dog and call him
Scrappy Doo” plan. The next few rounds are going to be interesting…
Round 8 – Pick# 74
Wes Welker – WR – New England Patriots
The good: He’s one of Bradys favorite targets, he’ll put up tons of yardage, and Brady trusts him
this much.
The bad: His bum knee. He’ll be on the PUP list to start the season (missing 6 games).
The ugly: If the knee is healthy, this is the steal of the draft. If it’s not 100%, he’s still worth it. I hope to get 8 weeks out of him, anything after that is icing on the cake.
My prediction: 80 catches, 700 yards, 3 touchdowns … 10 pts/week (8 weeks)
Round 9 – Pick# 87
Felix Jones – RB – Dallas Cowboys
The good: As explosive as any player in the league. If he establishes himself as the true #1, he’ll put up MASSIVE numbers.
The bad: Simple, he’s injury prone. Like
Wile E. Coyote, he’s going to get hurt, and its going to be self inflicted.
Not sure how, not sure when, just sure it’ll happen.
The ugly: Much like Welker, if I can get 8 games out of him, I’m thrilled.
My prediction: 950 yards, 8 touchdowns … 10 pts/week (14 weeks)
Round 10 – Pick# 94
Marion Barber – RB – Dallas Cowboys
The good: He’ll steal a ton of TD’s and carry the team in Jones’ inevitable absence.
The bad: When he’s not starting, you don’t know which games he’ll play and which he’ll sit.
The ugly: He’s too risky to use every week, but when Jones goes down, you definitely plug him in and let him put up big numbers. If he can get past his one little problem…
his *cough* injury. I’m not kidding. Seriously…
this kept him out.
My prediction: 1100 yards, 7 touchdowns … 10 pts/week (15 weeks)
Round 11 – Pick# 107
Ahmad Bradshaw – RB – New York Giants
The good: He gained 800 yards and scored 7 touchdowns on a torn ankle last year. With it healthy now, he should put up better numbers.
The bad: He’s the secondary back behind Jacobs and Jacobs is a TD vulture.
He’ll never be the main guy as long as Jacobs is around.
The ugly: If Jacobs gets hurt, he’ll be a star. If Jacobs stays healthy, he’ll be mediocre at best. I’ll take a gamble on that. Especially in round 11.
My prediction: 900 yards, 6 touchdowns…8.5 pts/week
Round 12 – Pick# 114
Santonio Holmes – WR – New York Jets
The good: Everything except that pesky suspension.
The bad: That pesky suspension. Oh yeah, and this
guy.
The ugly: When he comes back, he’ll be the Jets primary WR. That, combined with Sanchez maturing, and teams loading up the box against the Jets, should yield some solid numbers. In Round 12, this is a steal. He’ll be my WR2 starting in Week 5, unless my other guys are putting up huge numbers.
My prediction: 46 catches, 740 yards, 6 touchdowns … 10 pts/week (12 weeks)
The draft so far…
Both would have been Round 4/5 picks if they didn’t have “minor flaws” (like a suspension or balky knee). I’m not concerned about either, and when we hit the end of the season, people will be wondering why they didn’t grab these guys sooner. This happens every year (read:
Brandon Marshall,
Shawne Merriman, and
Manny Ramirez), so I am confident things will work out.
Okay, it’s time to fill in the roster with the required periphery players and take
a chance.
Round 13 – Pick# 127
New Orleans Saints – DEF
The good: They still have a ridiculously good offense, which means they’ll get big leads early and often. This means more passing situations for their opponents, which means more sacks and interceptions.
The bad: They’re going to give up some points in garbage time, and they play a rough schedule.
The ugly: It’s a team defense, and I picked the best team still available. If they make it through the whole season on my roster, I’d be amazed. But hey,
stranger things have happened…My prediction: 32 turnovers, 32 sacks, 20.5 points per game against … 8 pts/week
Round 14 – Pick# 134
David Akers – K – Philadelphia Eagles
The good: He hasn’t hurt himself celebrating a chip shot field goal, and he hasn’t been arrested in a few years.
The bad: He’s a kicker, he wears two different shoes, and he plays for Philadelphia.
The ugly: Philly doesn’t do well in short yardage spots, Jackson won’t break as many big plays this year, and Akers has been an Eagle for years. Those things should be a good sign. But lets be honest, as soon as he puts up a
Dorfman, he’s gone.
My prediction: 44 extra points, 32 field goals … 9.5 pts/week
Round 15 – Pick# 147
Dexter McCluster – WR/RB – Kansas City Chiefs
The good: He’s WR and RB eligible. He’s slated to be the Wildcat back, the slot receiver, and the primary return man. Bowe can’t be trusted, Chambers is old, and the coaches at KC expect big things from him.
The bad: His
measurables are terrible and he has no true role. He could ride the pine for most of the year.
The ugly: He’ll either be the second coming of Dante Hall, or the second coming of Monte Hall. He’ll be holding a roster slot until I need an injury/bye week replacement, or I find someone better. If he pans out, then that is great. If he doesn’t, then he’ll be cut.
Just like this. Didn’t see that coming, did you?
My prediction: 500 combined rush/receiving yards, 5 total touchdowns … 5 pts/week
The post-mortem…
Overall, my team is solid. I have lots of depth at RB and WR, and solid starters at every position. If Brady or Davis go down, then my team
might just fade into Bolivian. But more than likely, I’ll still be a competitive team.
Grant, Mendenhall, Marshall, and Davis all put up points weekly. They are of the
set it and forget set of players that win championships.
Garcon & Sims-Walker are a solid pair of WR3’s. They’ve got one job, and that’s to get me to Week 5. After that, Holmes will take over the WR2 job, while Welker will get plugged in as the WR3 as soon as I know that he’s going to play. That gives me options during bye weeks, and allows me to field a competitive set of WR every week. Having 5 guys for 3 spots is a great luxury, one that the other teams in the league don’t have. And considering that WR is my weakest position,
things look good!
Jones & Barber will combine to be spectacular RB3/4. I totally expect an injury to one of them during the season,, which will boost the value of the other. Using them as bye week fillers and injury backups means that I don’t have to figure out who the best back is until midseason, when it should be a clearer picture. All I know is that this pair looks really good. Not quite as good as
this pair…or
this pair… or even
this pair, but certainly better than
this pair.
McCluster and Bradshaw are nothing more then lottery tickets. If they payoff, I’ll try and use them as trade bait along with a solid #2 to grab a top 3 RB or top 5 WR. If they don’t payoff, or if I can’t pull off a trade, it’s not a big loss, as they’re only a round #11 and round #15 pick. Sometimes you just have to take a gamble. I mean who would have expected
this piece of…err …piece of art to survive 25 years?
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